Shivaay vs Ae Dil Hai Mushkil: Pre-Release Box-Office Analysis



Box Office


With just over a week remaining for two of the biggest releases of the year – Shivaay and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil – to hit screens, the box-office clash between Karan Johar and Ajay Devgn’s Diwali bonanzas is intensifying with each passing day. Both films have been exchanging in serves and volleys with their trailers, songs, and dialogue promos, but the time has now arrived to get down to the real deal – the numbers that would decide their fate at the box-office and the factors that could influence their first day and opening weekend collections.


Let’s take a closer look at how the two movies measure up in terms of budget, screen count, and recovery already made from external sources.

Unit Shivaay ADHM
Production Cost  90 cr  75 cr
Marketing Cost  15 cr  15 cr
TOTAL  105 cr  90 cr
Screen count (approx)  3000  2500
Satellite Rights  40 cr  30 cr
Music  10 cr  15 cr
Auxilary Rights  10 cr  10 cr
Cost Recovered (External)  60 cr  55 cr

 

As you can see, Shivaay is clearly the more-expensive film of the two, but to Ajay’s credit, he’s still managed to keep the budget in check since he’s both the producer and director of the film, too. Smarter economics mean that ADHM could find it easier to break even and then turn over profits. Here’s how much both Shivaay and ADHM would need to emerge successful at the domestic box-office.

 BO Verdict  Shivaay  ADHM
 Blockbuster   160 cr+  140 Cr+
 Superhit  141-160 cr  121-140 cr
 Hit  116-140 cr  101-120 cr
 Average  91-115 cr 81-100 cr
 Flop  Below 90 cr  Below 80 cr

 

Coming to the overseas market, the Ranbir-Anushka-Aishwarya starrer will be the clear winner considering the kind of devoted fan-base KJo enjoys among the expatriate and foreign audience. In fact, ADHM is expected to be the biggest money-spinner in the international market after Sultan.

However, a bumper opening for either film shouldn’t be expected in the domestic curcuit as they’re opening in the pre-Diwali period, and the actual revenue should start flowing two days later, when the actual Diwali weekend kicks in, which makes the critical reviews and audience word-of-mouth all the more crucial for both films. For now, the scales are tilted in Shivaay’s favor for now primarily because of the public sentiment against the presence of Pakistani artists in Indian films, and the imminent threat posed by the political outfit the MNS, who’ve vowed to disrupt the screenings of Ae Dil hai Mushkil all over Maharashtra. Furthermore, certain single screens could also comply with the COEAI appeal to refrain from screening ADHM.

Nevertheless, the box-office is an extremely fickle entity, and all these analysis, predictions, and factors for and against both films, could go flying out of the window once they release.

Image Source: Ajay Devgn FFilms and Dharma Productions

Note: All figures researched from relaible sources. Movified cannot be held accountable for any change in figures.