Can Kaabil Bring Hrithik Roshan Back In Form: Box Office Prediction And Pre Release Analysis


Hrithik Roshan will be returning to cinema halls next week with Kaabil, five months after the debacle of Mohenjo Daro. The talk of the town has been about the clash with Shah Rukh Khan’s Raees, but before the clash actually takes effect, let’s see how Kaabil has shaped up in terms of budget and other economics; the factors that could work its favor and against it come D-day; and how much it needs to be considered a safe bet at the ticket window.



1.) Hrithik Roshan – the man’s still one of only six Bollywood superstars with a pan-Indian following, and one flop, however huge, isn’t going to change that anytime soon.

2.) The trailer has been appreciated, and the other promos, too, have caught on well.

3.) The music, though mot boasting any chartbuster, has done well.

4.) Big holiday weekend.

5.) Smart economics, which could prove decisive in a big clash.


1.) Lank of a bankable female lead.

2.) Sanjay Gupta’s recent track record as Director doesn’t inspire confidence.

3.) Shah Rukh Khan’s tremendous track record when it comes to box-office clashes.


Taking the above factors into consideration, we’re going with an opening-day prediction of Rs. 10-11 crore nett. The film would have earned way more had the clash not been happening, but even this opening would be favorable on account of the film’s restricted budget and well-planned marketing campaign, which we’ll get to later. If it collects as much as we have predicted on day one and shows growth over the next few days, then Kaabil could easily finish with a weekend collection in the range of Rs. 50-55 crore nett (5-day weekend). After that, it’ll just need to hold well over the weekday to emerge a success at the box-office.

Parameter Prediction in Nett (INR)
Opening Day 1011 crore
Opening Weekend 50-55 crore


Let’s now take a closer look at the film’s budget and recovery already made from non-theatrical sources. Producer Rakesh Roshan needs to be applauded for bringing all his experience to the table to restrict Kaabil’s total landing cost, which includes its production budget, print, and advertising.

Parameter Amount (INR)
Production Cost 35 crore
Print and Advertising 15 crore
Total Budget 50 crore
Satellite Rights 50 crore
Music Rights 8 crore
Domestic Theatrical Rights 42 crore
Overseas Theatrical Rights 16 crore
Total Profit 66 crore
ROI 132%


As you can see, Kaabil has more than doubled its investment for its producers even before release. So, its distributors can now earn a larger chunk of share at the box-office. Additionally, Rakesh opted out of the latest fad of bringing in a corporate studio, and instead, chose to directly sell the film to local distributors, with whom he has built a good relationship down the years. So, by negating the third-party studio system and resorting to traditional distribution methods, the theatrical rights have been well restricted to ensure no one involved suffers losses, unless the film tanks miserably at the box-office. Based on these factors, here’s how much Kaabil needs to make at the box-office to emerge a profit-making venture for its distributors, too.

Verdict Amount (INR)
Blockbuster Above 150 crore
Superhit 111-150 crore
Hit 86-110 crore
Average 71-85 crore
Flop Below 70 crore


As of now, many aspects are in Kaabil’s favor. However, the box-office is an extremely fickle entity, and all these analysis, predictions, and factors could go for a toss once the film releases.

Image Source: FilmKraft

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